Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability Progress Monitoring Probes

About this resource

One skill, start to finish. A theoretical-and-experimental probability IEP goal, six equivalent probe forms that measure both halves of it, and a graph scaled to the probe. Baseline on Monday, goal written by Tuesday, first data point on Friday.

The store's existing simple-event probability probe scores one fraction: the theoretical probability a described scenario's own numbers make certain. This probe pairs each of those same sixty scenarios with a short classroom trial result and scores a second, independent fraction alongside it -- the experimental probability the trial actually produced, written in lowest terms -- so a missed item tells you which half broke: reading the scenario, or reading the trial data.

WHAT IS INCLUDED - 18 pages, six probe forms, 365 type-in fields, a binder cover and divider tabs, a family update page, a two-page teacher answer key

A Binder Cover And Divider Tabs

• A binder cover with student, case manager and school year fields, cut and slide into a binder front or folder tab
• Six divider tabs, one per section of this file, print and cut

The Goal Page

• What the probe measures, in one paragraph
• A sample goal, invented, with every bracket meant to be edited by the team
• The six-part goal frame as type-in fields: by (date), given, student will, criterion, on ___ of ___ consecutive probes, as measured by
• A baseline table: three probes and the median
• Three benchmark rows with target date, target score, actual score and met
• The administration and scoring directions
• Lines for this student's own scoring rules, and a box for what the errors say to reteach

Six Probe Forms, A Through F

• Ten problems per form, each pairing a simple-event scenario with a short classroom trial result; no new scenario or art was added -- every sentence is reused from this store's existing theoretical-probability probe
• Two closed, computed answers per item: the theoretical probability as a fraction (not reduced), and the experimental probability from the stated trial result, reduced to lowest terms
• The experimental trial counts are built so every reduced experimental fraction is short and exact, never an approximation
• Sixty different problems across the six forms, none repeated anywhere, and no two items share the same scenario and the same trial numbers
• Every form is a student sheet and nothing else: a big My name line, a small date line, one short instruction with a pencil picture, the ten problems numbered with room to work in every box, and one small gray tag naming the skill and the form letter. No goal text, no scoring strip, no directions: nothing on the page is written for an adult
• Rounded sans-serif type throughout, large, with white space (built to the store's student page standard)

The Answer Key And Scoring (Two Teacher Pages, 16 And 17)

• Every answer for all six forms, generated by the same code that draws the problems, in a numbered table that matches the numbers on the student sheet
• Under each form's answers, a row of boxes to mark each item and a Correct ___ / 10 box, so the scoring strip that used to sit on the form is here instead
• The giving-the-probe directions from the goal page, repeated on both pages, with the scoring rules: untimed, self-corrections count as correct, log the score the same day

The Data Log And Graph

• A y-axis already scaled 0 to 10, twelve probe columns, and the instruction to draw the aim line from the baseline to the criterion first
• A twelve-row log: date, form, correct, errors, the score used on the graph, and notes

The Caseload Summary

• Twelve student rows, baseline and criterion, eight probe columns, a trend column and a decision column
• For the data meeting: rows that are flat together are a group, a row that is flat alone is a different question

A Worked Example

• Marcus, seventh grade, invented. Twelve weekly probes: the baseline taken as a median, the aim line, three points under it forcing a teaching change (added one step: simplify the trial fraction before writing it, one week), the criterion met, and the progress-report sentence the log produces. Every number in that sentence is on the log.

A Family Update And Team Handoff Page

• A family update with blanks for this week's score and how it compares to the goal, ready to send home or read at a conference
• A team handoff checklist for a substitute, a new provider or a shift change, so whoever gives the probe that week knows exactly what to do
• A meeting summary sentence with blanks for the two numbers off the log, ready to drop into the progress report

What This Is, And What It Is Not

It is a fillable PDF. The goal page, the data log, the caseload page, the name and date lines on every student sheet, and the mark boxes and Correct box on the answer key are type-in fields: open the file in a PDF reader, click a line or a cell, type, and Save As once per student. The probe forms are meant to be printed: one copy per student per week, the student writes on the form, and that same sheet is the one you score. It works offline with no account or subscription. It does not calculate percents or draw the graph.

It is not a norm-referenced assessment and it carries no benchmark score or "typical" rate. The criteria in the sample goal are in brackets because your team sets them from the baseline and the student's IEP. Every probe is untimed on purpose; the goal page says so, so the condition stays the same all year.

Who This Is For

Middle school special education teachers and case managers writing a probability goal that compares a prediction to an actual result, intervention and resource room teachers, and the paraprofessionals who give the weekly probe.

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